Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc50f2ad21c750f4a5c018ac4ab52f1ec83408bbe6797f7d3b6c9582402001873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 32c | 1,561$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.51 | 255 | 42.4%108 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 31c | 1,363$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.03 | 158 | 33.5%53 W · 105 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 59c | 1,091$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.92 | 363 | 22.9%83 W · 280 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 1,074$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.7 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 76c | 842.46$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.72 | 357 | 26.6%95 W · 262 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 15c | 765.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 31c | 702.43$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.57 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 699.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 40c | 691.19$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.21 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 25c | 666.61$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.8 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 29c | 653.34$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.61 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 637.08$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 534.14$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.09 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 42c | 513.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.21 | 520 | 22.5%117 W · 403 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 512.79$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 465.88$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.55 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 418.47$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 6c | 408.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 17c | 401.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 332.6$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 37c | 317.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 304 | 24.7%75 W · 229 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 28c | 305.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 299.35$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 3c | 299.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 277.61$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 42c | 253.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | +18.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 37c | 251$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 30c | 233.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 305 | 28.2%86 W · 219 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 226.42$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 196$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 187.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 55c | 180.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 174.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 53c | 162.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 10c | 161.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 22c | 161$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 239 | 33.5%80 W · 159 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 156.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 696 | 58.5%407 W · 289 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 148$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 32c | 146.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 63c | 146.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 495 | 23.6%117 W · 378 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 127.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 75c | 127.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 471 | 58.8%277 W · 194 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 29c | 110.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 68c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 68c | 109.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 38c | 107.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 575 | 57.7%332 W · 243 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 107.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 49c | 101.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 292 | 30.5%89 W · 203 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 301 | 26.9%81 W · 220 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 16c | 99.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 30c | 97.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 96.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 96.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 566 | 54.4%308 W · 258 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 54c | 89.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 30c | 86.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 24c | 79.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 77.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 21c | 74.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 41c | 73.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 23c | 72.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 588 | 24.8%146 W · 442 L | -18.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 48c | 71.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 177 | 26.6%47 W · 130 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 311 | 32.2%100 W · 211 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 15c | 69.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 68.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 29c | 68.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 63c | 68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 149 | 26.8%40 W · 109 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 53c | 65.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 47c | 60.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 60.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 59.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 34c | 56.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 56.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 36c | 55.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 195 | 34.9%68 W · 127 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 289 | 42.9%124 W · 165 L | +25.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 42c | 52.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 26c | 52.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 966 | 51.3%496 W · 470 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 51.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 51.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 68c | 50.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.