Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55aa2aa6d3b92d75e81d7ebb9b4787ffb0097ae39a65b573fb303d57621fb7d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 15c | 923.09$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 4c | 909.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 735.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 557.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 467.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 15c | 328.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 6c | 305.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 299.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 282.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 245$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 16c | 230.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 218.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 18c | 213.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 17c | 199.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 173.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 39c | 150.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 17c | 123.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 19c | 113.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 110.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 15c | 100.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 99.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 94.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 30c | 92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 16c | 87.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 85.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…73c0backed Yes | 16c | 85.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 25c | 83.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 72c | 80.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 76.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 75.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 69.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 67.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 64.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 19c | 63.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…a764backed No | 77c | 60.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 23c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 54.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 45.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 33.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…156cbacked No | 79c | 21.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 61c | 18.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 78c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.