TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Texas Rangers, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$300,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Texas Rangers47c27,799$13,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,065.5331149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics65c19,335$12,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,681.6110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f0…2768backed Athletics53c15,654$8,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,394.5914943.6%65 W · 84 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Texas Rangers50c13,926$6,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,912.7211146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Athletics53c12,183$6,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,726.2238148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Athletics64c11,741$7,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,226.6951756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics53c9,898$5,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,652.021,68150.1%842 W · 839 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Athletics53c7,334$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.06742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Texas Rangers44c6,620$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,898.8213045.4%59 W · 71 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8205,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Athletics53c5,831$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,740.487048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics66c5,772$3,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.932,14950.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe23…b587backed Texas Rangers47c5,398$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.3560%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Athletics51c4,437$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Texas Rangers47c4,282$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.741,52751.1%780 W · 747 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Texas Rangers47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8808552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Texas Rangers49c3,957$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.837953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics51c3,251$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.271,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers28c3,186$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.488,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers33c2,872$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.282,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Texas Rangers35c2,712$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.331,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers47c2,307$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.396,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Texas Rangers44c2,196$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.414243%61 W · 81 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Texas Rangers47c2,041$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.2713254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers10c2,018$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.756,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Texas Rangers20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Athletics53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.9845451.3%233 W · 221 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f5…fb4abacked Texas Rangers49c1,978$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.41656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Texas Rangers41c1,929$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.0911057.3%63 W · 47 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Athletics54c1,772$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.731,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics59c1,767$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.581,52059.1%899 W · 621 L+78.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Texas Rangers38c1,751$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.8734452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Texas Rangers46c1,683$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.0824040.8%98 W · 142 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics78c1,601$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.8312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Athletics59c1,578$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.5848850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Athletics51c1,555$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.941,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Athletics53c1,536$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.811241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed Texas Rangers47c1,450$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Texas Rangers8c1,380$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.87128.2%20 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Texas Rangers38c1,367$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.81,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Texas Rangers37c1,268$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.511,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Texas Rangers38c1,263$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.6212656.3%71 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea48…62dcbacked Athletics56c1,130$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.231631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Texas Rangers43c1,083$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6611347.8%54 W · 59 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas Rangers31c1,071$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Texas Rangers47c1,050$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.54951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa589…96fcbacked Athletics51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Texas Rangers47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Texas Rangers41c964.6$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.4933864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Texas Rangers48c959.11$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.3728850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Texas Rangers38c879.43$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.339351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics55c875.7$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.064,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Texas Rangers27c803.18$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5420443.1%88 W · 116 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Texas Rangers35c793.16$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.611,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics57c786.44$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.759,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Athletics64c759.11$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.6565050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics57c743.99$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.41,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Texas Rangers53c723.27$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.836649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Texas Rangers28c714.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1411129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Texas Rangers47c694.49$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.411,41843.4%616 W · 802 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Athletics69c676.88$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5255464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Texas Rangers26c668.19$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.179431.9%30 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04ec…9f8fbacked Texas Rangers41c658.21$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.863164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+47.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b4e…12aebacked Texas Rangers32c634.55$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.024641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Texas Rangers48c624.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.942,05053.8%1,103 W · 947 L+33.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Texas Rangers8c610.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2394734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics52c604.23$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.571,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b4…3ccdbacked Texas Rangers47c586.52$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers47c579.04$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.993,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x720e…17b0backed Texas Rangers17c569.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956467.2%43 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Texas Rangers25c567.52$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5114034.3%48 W · 92 L-13.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Texas Rangers35c557.28$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.391,15342.8%494 W · 659 L-37.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Athletics54c549.88$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2570735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x825f…5e01backed Athletics53c523.97$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Texas Rangers30c510.57$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.633328.2%94 W · 239 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Athletics53c509.4$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.4527751.6%143 W · 134 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23585952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Texas Rangers47c480.23$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7146749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Texas Rangers48c479.56$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1919848.5%96 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Athletics65c473.46$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8839640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Athletics55c454.94$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.181,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Texas Rangers47c450$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.51,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Texas Rangers43c435.79$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3611942.9%51 W · 68 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c4…148dbacked Texas Rangers50c428.74$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.371546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Texas Rangers42c424.73$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7865651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Athletics48c421.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.6737348.3%180 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics53c419.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.391,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics69c418.22$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.155,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Texas Rangers47c412$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.646246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Texas Rangers47c409.43$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4333852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Texas Rangers49c407.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.522548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Athletics53c402.87$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.35875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Texas Rangers17c402.58$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4342241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Texas Rangers12c400$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4755847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Athletics62c391.77$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1470546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Texas Rangers47c388.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8265749.2%323 W · 334 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f75…df7fbacked Athletics66c385.9$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.212751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e9…c72abacked Athletics53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.365950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Athletics53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3648354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Texas Rangers12c366$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9267742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.