MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196300cbc61267f101d14f969ef4fb5de3526ebbcf7433a836321a0ff042e450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 12,791$4,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,863.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 62c | 11,726$7,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,265.3 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 11,396$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,014.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 40c | 6,207$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.38 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 56c | 5,681$3,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.04 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 4,732$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.95 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 70c | 2,162$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.18 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 49c | 2,050$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.8 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 46c | 1,108$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.42 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 1,067$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Under | 60c | 1,004$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 964.05$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.17 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 596.3$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 52c | 388.48$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.47 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Under | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 50c | 116.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 111.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…2f79backed Under | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 43c | 65.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Over | 44c | 54.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 62c | 51.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Under | 50c | 51.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 39.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 58c | 37.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 41c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 69c | 36.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb551…a2f3backed Over | 52c | 35.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 45c | 34.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…0a81backed Over | 42c | 32.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 48c | 31.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 30.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 63c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 27.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 44c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 60c | 18.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.