Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd0cdd9b426b2c30fb7f20918e55a4097742e0cb5eae676c2a50a5b8d49ba847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked No | 11c | 1,110$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 37c | 814.7$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.59 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 14c | 798.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 3c | 797.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.19 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 685.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 9c | 545.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 449.51$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.61 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked No | 66c | 388$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 36c | 352.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 12c | 342$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.86 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 67c | 320$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 21c | 279.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 33c | 254.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 211.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 12c | 169.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 77c | 165.64$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 12c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071a…d310backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa378…1927backed Yes | 65c | 98.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 25c | 69.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 44c | 60.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 62c | 51.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…5158backed No | 68c | 37.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7377…6414backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…7862backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…3f74backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…d9e7backed No | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 25?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 26?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.