Weather · resolved market
Megaquake in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1856eb41de24b179974e8578f8cf3a5dc267dd4312a412b38c075730ef2b0747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…a69ebacked Yes | 9c | 46,528$4,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,037.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 5c | 15,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 4c | 7,388$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.63 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 19c | 4,211$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,410.52 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 11c | 4,162$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…7182backed Yes | 1c | 4,141$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 15c | 3,055$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed Yes | 8c | 2,829$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 7c | 1,926$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 8c | 1,912$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712e…7f91backed Yes | 4c | 1,846$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 14c | 1,497$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 20c | 1,000$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.65 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 5c | 815.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 629.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 50c | 595$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…40fcbacked Yes | 6c | 485.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 7c | 380.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 7c | 309.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 4c | 298.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 265.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 7c | 176.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +434.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.