World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba7d5531aeef3102332888726894e568ecbbfe2c57743ac708c666622c219ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc620…070fbacked Yes | 47c | 43,107$20,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,260.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…9913backed No | 53c | 43,107$22,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,260.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed Yes | 35c | 7,693$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 47c | 7,635$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.46 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 9c | 7,556$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.98 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 66c | 5,641$3,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.17 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…1771backed Yes | 36c | 4,839$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 32c | 4,370$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.85 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…7be7backed Yes | 20c | 4,300$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 29c | 2,925$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.94 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,752$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.72 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 42c | 2,704$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.32 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 2,183$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.09 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 32c | 2,037$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.34 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 33c | 2,033$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.15 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed Yes | 14c | 1,988$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 38c | 1,940$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 1,760$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 50c | 1,684$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.89 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,645$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.34 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…193abacked Yes | 8c | 1,495$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Yes | 39c | 1,473$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf8…39d3backed No | 75c | 1,437$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 36c | 1,321$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.1 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 40c | 1,300$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 41c | 1,221$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 38c | 1,208$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.66 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 1,200$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 50c | 1,129$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 40c | 1,050$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.13 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 39c | 965.68$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.09 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 896$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…e83ebacked No | 56c | 877.42$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 42c | 764.96$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 21c | 758$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 57c | 700.1$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.95 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 31c | 700$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 35c | 660$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…e5ddbacked Yes | 47c | 653.37$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.08 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 66c | 600$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 45c | 589.48$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 33c | 585$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.9 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 52c | 577.12$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.81 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 21c | 564.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 31c | 551.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…8ca8backed Yes | 24c | 465.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 30c | 413.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…4e18backed Yes | 29c | 397.34$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 44c | 366.77$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…4f92backed Yes | 4c | 363.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aae…483cbacked Yes | 44c | 339$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 329$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0349…d0a1backed Yes | 44c | 273.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 53c | 266.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 59c | 234$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 39c | 224$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…9128backed Yes | 31c | 218.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 201.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 52c | 198$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 35c | 185.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 53c | 181$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…6e71backed Yes | 31c | 151.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…56d6backed Yes | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 142.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 32c | 132$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…7915backed Yes | 33c | 130.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 120.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 34c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 112.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…c526backed Yes | 46c | 100.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…0f2fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 32c | 92.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…e976backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…06cbbacked No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…e126backed Yes | 37c | 54.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 42c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked No | 50c | 44.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…9042backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…d24cbacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…5dd1backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…8637backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 27.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.