World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a410310cb6a00c666259a134c6391e0682cb2dd98ea36a7890560566f603499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 61c | 6,716$4,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,621.03 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 64c | 5,645$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.21 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 64c | 4,126$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.75 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 65c | 4,096$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.59 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 3,954$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.93 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…e83ebacked Yes | 62c | 3,167$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed No | 36c | 2,536$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 38c | 2,338$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.04 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Yes | 66c | 2,116$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 29c | 2,014$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.48 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 65c | 1,977$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.04 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 60c | 1,666$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.84 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,639$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.29 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 1,450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 64c | 1,423$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 23c | 1,412$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.32 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 70c | 1,324$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 66c | 1,228$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.96 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,147$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…755dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,016$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 60c | 999.8$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 57c | 972.17$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.64 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 41c | 943.99$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.71 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 800$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 49c | 750.38$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.69 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 37c | 710.97$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.06 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Yes | 54c | 696.01$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed No | 39c | 685.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 50c | 681.42$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 34c | 642.53$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 31c | 641.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.45 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 34c | 600$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 62c | 585$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.34 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…7c65backed Yes | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 40c | 569.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 60c | 561$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Yes | 56c | 533.14$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.39 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…24abbacked Yes | 55c | 530.07$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 510.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 40c | 483.84$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 62c | 464.95$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 25c | 448.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 61c | 446$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 47c | 424.37$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.82 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 67c | 337.72$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed Yes | 77c | 298.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Yes | 62c | 282.07$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked Yes | 62c | 256.66$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes | 58c | 244$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…54a8backed Yes | 62c | 228.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 62c | 221.17$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 36c | 219.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 54c | 207$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 43c | 206.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…686dbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5010…75dfbacked No | 39c | 199.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 41c | 193.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 180.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…4e6fbacked Yes | 57c | 179.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…ed73backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Yes | 53c | 151$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 147.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…8ca8backed No | 31c | 146.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…5631backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 66c | 132$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked No | 41c | 113.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes | 70c | 113.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…68fdbacked Yes | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 41c | 109.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 42c | 108.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 104.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…af84backed Yes | 61c | 102$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…8814backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 70c | 88.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…2f9abacked Yes | 63c | 84.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…b6e8backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 30c | 76.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 61c | 76.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 61c | 76.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…2280backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…0aacbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…f909backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c1…3173backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…7cccbacked Yes | 51c | 69.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…057dbacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 20c | 64.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…6155backed Yes | 70c | 54.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…cb14backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…056fbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.