Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197e5697bd7b6c8173b0ee24e8d4e7e03f94088c6dc0455b8bf370042caf9790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…9ba6backed Yes | 0c | 11,360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 1c | 1,283$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked Yes | 53c | 930$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0810backed No | 48c | 830.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 50c | 563.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.67 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 7c | 558.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed Yes | 53c | 550$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed No | 47c | 510$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed No | 47c | 420$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 10c | 374.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 318.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked Yes | 60c | 305.32$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…311ebacked No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +214.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 55c | 199.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 186.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 139.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 134.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 62c | 125.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 60c | 124.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed No | 56c | 89.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 53c | 89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 56c | 88.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…7f09backed No | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…dc35backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…99efbacked Yes | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…6dbebacked No | 44c | 70.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 44c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…7f6bbacked No | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…6b88backed No | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…8b26backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…dc09backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…10b7backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 39c | 27.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…9d2fbacked Yes | 61c | 27.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…c991backed No | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…ec79backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…a3bfbacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.