Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176a93762f4a9b47ef6ce4ba55c7aac71d538c6c7fd600649b3c332551438f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,877$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 11c | 6,153$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 1,221$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,197$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…403abacked Yes | 19c | 809.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 572.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…d820backed Yes | 11c | 546.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 415.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 261$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…5a2cbacked Yes | 26c | 195.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 20c | 172$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…ccbabacked Yes | 23c | 169$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 7c | 147.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 27c | 137.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 25c | 111.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…e414backed No | 77c | 104.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…55e2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…2cb5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 200-219 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 240 or more times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.