Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4168a18ce024b93a81fb13841d9afcf5575aa0fcf2372b6ddda33b92cc3d3ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd48…db01backed No | 78c | 1,739$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.06 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 1,596$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.98 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 1,100$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 7c | 935.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.03 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 758.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.19 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 8c | 508.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.17 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 18c | 500$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 28c | 332.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.24 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 20c | 285.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 41c | 277.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…6013backed No | 77c | 251.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 38c | 240.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 78c | 217.4$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 194.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 176.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.26 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 21c | 172.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 150.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 17c | 150.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…b7f3backed No | 61c | 148.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 33c | 134$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 73c | 117.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 44c | 112.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…ccfebacked No | 52c | 107.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 42c | 107.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 67c | 104.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 29c | 102.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 97.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 93.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 13c | 93.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f13…dd46backed Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +553.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 74c | 67.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 27c | 67.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…6455backed Yes | 76c | 52.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 33.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…049cbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 71c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…9e24backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 200-219 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 240 or more times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.