Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce403161064c4acc0ca5e9060a58681afa63cc93a34ec106f10a1864145fc168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 1,247$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 1,100$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.77 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 870.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed No | 76c | 707.84$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.71 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e5…9088backed No | 14c | 463$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 27c | 270.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d2f2backed No | 79c | 245.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 218.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 48c | 215.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed No | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…8759backed No | 34c | 161.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 33c | 153.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 70c | 142.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 76c | 132.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…b4a5backed No | 21c | 130$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 23c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 23c | 117.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 113.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 111.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…d820backed Yes | 47c | 100.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 26c | 95.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 63c | 93.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 56c | 93.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…b7f3backed Yes | 53c | 83.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6591…2df1backed Yes | 79c | 73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 40c | 70.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…3f9cbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…079cbacked Yes | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 77c | 66.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…ab6abacked No | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…df8cbacked No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa513…c017backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…a026backed Yes | 60c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8542…90c6backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…7ec4backed No | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…6455backed Yes | 50c | 44.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…ed4cbacked Yes | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…1aeabacked No | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…d7c0backed No | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc244…f2ddbacked No | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61f…df57backed Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3f…8862backed Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…7410backed Yes | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbd…f56bbacked Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180d…023dbacked Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…59c8backed Yes | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…a0d2backed Yes | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…0165backed Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…34c0backed Yes | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +250.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…b487backed Yes | 69c | 25.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…5489backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf5…7b13backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…68fdbacked Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…1613backed Yes | 70c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1a…b527backed Yes | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…c169backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…413cbacked Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 200-219 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 240 or more times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.