Us Politics · resolved market
Debt ceiling raised or suspended by inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8907ced4577fdb8bee2265c0caeba932002795afde5e4cc03a41597e9ee3d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $491,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $639,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 4c | 20,593$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.35 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 2c | 19,158$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…6819backed Yes | 2c | 15,376$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 10c | 13,549$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.03 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 1c | 9,997$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,686$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.47 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…eb88backed Yes | 2c | 4,154$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 3,617$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 18c | 3,610$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.93 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 3,483$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 2c | 3,072$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…dc01backed Yes | 10c | 2,820$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 5c | 2,413$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…c7c8backed Yes | 4c | 2,362$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 43c | 2,300$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…f7babacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,671$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4599…2dd3backed Yes | 4c | 1,398$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…01babacked Yes | 1c | 1,301$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec04…9b65backed Yes | 4c | 1,290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 8c | 1,284$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…4cccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,171$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…5561backed Yes | 4c | 1,090$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +122%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 4c | 968.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 23c | 957.77$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.36 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 17c | 900$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 74c | 844$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…f741backed Yes | 4c | 800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 36c | 622.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.89 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 47c | 618$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…46d6backed Yes | 43c | 473$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 78c | 470$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…4effbacked Yes | 4c | 464.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3229…fc0cbacked Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked Yes | 8c | 361.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed Yes | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 347.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 7c | 334.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…4a72backed Yes | 5c | 311.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…36efbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…903abacked Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…b2a6backed Yes | 43c | 239.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 53c | 235.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…0305backed Yes | 13c | 179.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked No | 73c | 164.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 38c | 149$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 145.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…7dfebacked No | 40c | 100.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 52c | 49.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 72c | 42.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 51c | 37.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…ec8bbacked No | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…5fabbacked Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…b94fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 49c | 22.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…73b7backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.