Ukraine · resolved market
Mystery Drones searching for nuclear weapons?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07faaf60d74c220019196a1d49b3c0ca4578444a0be2b001de6ee4480a74ebf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,374,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,146,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,374,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…a69ebacked Yes | 3c | 57,690$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…615fbacked Yes | 2c | 45,378$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 1c | 34,721$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 17,246$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…1b7bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,408$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 14,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 3c | 11,026$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…cbe9backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 8,063$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,902$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,671$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 1c | 6,508$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 5c | 5,015$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…d834backed Yes | 5c | 4,839$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 3,437$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a123backed Yes | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…addabacked Yes | 2c | 3,081$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 1c | 2,919$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…82b5backed Yes | 4c | 2,739$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…54d2backed Yes | 4c | 2,317$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…1116backed Yes | 3c | 2,291$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 5c | 2,096$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…745ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,852$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f4…cffdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,583$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 4c | 1,526$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabec…e25cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,391$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 1,205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…903abacked Yes | 1c | 1,112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…20ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…c903backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…81fabacked Yes | 2c | 999.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 981.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…4da0backed Yes | 2c | 935.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 2c | 921.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…f445backed Yes | 4c | 759.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…3aebbacked Yes | 5c | 744.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed Yes | 2c | 614.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…0d19backed Yes | 4c | 609.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…499fbacked Yes | 2c | 571.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…cfa8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…7a9ebacked Yes | 2c | 488.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f74…8edbbacked Yes | 2c | 459.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 365.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…6b1abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.