Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ae60600cff48979a80c4bda8ea390b82f9e0a0fe2469b8b1edf439e1b8bfbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 73c | 9,000$6,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 27c | 8,788$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.73 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 58c | 8,759$5,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 60c | 7,426$4,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,983.44 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 73c | 6,736$4,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.89 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…a435backed Yes | 2c | 5,785$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 19c | 5,283$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.52 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed No | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 64c | 3,550$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 60c | 2,762$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 0c | 2,678$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 72c | 1,140$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.02 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…d8f4backed Yes | 42c | 1,100$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 24c | 1,013$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.36 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 61c | 1,010$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.45 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 57c | 1,010$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.3 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…555fbacked Yes | 1c | 980.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 926.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 24c | 536.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 14c | 526.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…4a31backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 63c | 261.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 26c | 249.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…9adfbacked No | 73c | 189.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked No | 75c | 175.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…f5cabacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 54c | 131.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…c636backed No | 66c | 131.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 50c | 94.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…65fabacked Yes | 29c | 69.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…0402backed No | 61c | 37.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…5abfbacked Yes | 45c | 36.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…bc72backed Yes | 46c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbe…b48fbacked No | 58c | 24.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 60c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.