Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76369c472cf1551497a14b4d3f824d0b72b18626929397b76275e47631fa000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 26c | 22,793$6,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,022.63 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 38c | 10,793$4,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,122.84 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 72c | 10,155$7,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 40c | 6,600$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,962 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 41c | 6,000$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes | 3c | 5,999$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 28c | 5,989$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…f0b2backed No | 70c | 5,721$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 67c | 4,181$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.3 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 75c | 3,891$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.93 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 69c | 3,615$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 53c | 3,501$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.59 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 48c | 3,188$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked No | 77c | 2,628$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 65c | 2,398$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 68c | 1,791$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.07 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,406$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.85 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 37c | 1,246$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.22 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed Yes | 43c | 1,025$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 36c | 700$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes | 62c | 650$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 32c | 557.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 24c | 415$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked No | 73c | 393.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 71c | 390$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 59c | 381.83$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 51c | 343.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 47c | 320.3$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…6543backed No | 76c | 319.59$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 63c | 270$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 258$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 60c | 256$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 46c | 239.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 59c | 200.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…7182backed Yes | 62c | 192.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 74c | 182.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 52c | 171.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 31c | 128.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 79c | 128.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…30dcbacked Yes | 25c | 120.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 75c | 100.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…8466backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae0…4cbbbacked Yes | 56c | 89.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d48…e34dbacked Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…6efbbacked Yes | 34c | 78.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…9c0ebacked No | 79c | 75.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63e…ab83backed No | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…7137backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +108%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…ea62backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…c64cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…65fabacked Yes | 35c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…f7f9backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05cf…3c85backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…bf7abacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…5adabacked Yes | 50c | 23.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…d3bcbacked No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed No | 73c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…925fbacked No | 77c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.