Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e6775f2c64d9f681bbfff8c12b4f9ab27d53a0ff8034917e6e64ce4cb972bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 15c | 8,240$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.98 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 26c | 6,320$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.74 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 29c | 2,100$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 76c | 1,910$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.8 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…a435backed Yes | 6c | 843.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 633.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…7803backed Yes | 14c | 562.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdee…026ebacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…7182backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 73c | 324.72$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 15c | 315.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 12c | 305.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 188.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 76c | 103.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…2d50backed No | 79c | 62.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.