Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0603e884100b6cbe4f8cd03c736e6f4b21cba054d96822fd3de7c7d2733179b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 50c | 19,723$9,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,939.77 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 57c | 10,098$5,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,756.81 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 35c | 9,605$3,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,277.55 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 9,349$4,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.34 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 43c | 9,321$4,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,047.04 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 53c | 5,600$2,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.92 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…7acbbacked No | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 43c | 4,922$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.27 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 40c | 4,200$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 56c | 3,593$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.16 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 52c | 2,764$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.66 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 51c | 2,499$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.67 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…d37abacked Yes | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…9826backed No | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 60c | 1,454$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…5adabacked No | 2c | 1,220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 36c | 781.25$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 43c | 679.51$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked No | 65c | 600$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 27c | 506.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.73 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…30dcbacked Yes | 57c | 494.74$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 46c | 400$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 16c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 47c | 245$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 74c | 234.47$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 50c | 220$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed No | 44c | 201.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 58c | 161$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 45c | 159.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…50cbbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…37e4backed Yes | 47c | 81.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 58c | 68.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…b286backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…b2dcbacked No | 48c | 47.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…9e49backed Yes | 55c | 40.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…caf0backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…65fabacked Yes | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 74c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…6baebacked No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…ba91backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Yes | 64c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…69d8backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 78c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.