NFL · resolved market
Will Denver face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x260e8e48932f5d341f12f9b83a7aff882f238337c35434471078aec88c25f061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 80c | 2,037$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.2 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…e4ebbacked Yes | 27c | 1,849$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…0e2bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,252$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 11c | 744$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 11c | 722$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 11c | 667$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 11c | 563$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 16c | 512.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 448$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…85f4backed Yes | 20c | 435$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 80c | 350.43$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 11c | 333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24d…d960backed Yes | 19c | 296.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 224$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…6fbebacked Yes | 57c | 173.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…3772backed Yes | 12c | 169.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…0846backed Yes | 11c | 158.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 116.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 101.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…8f12backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denver face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Buffalo face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Buffalo face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Denver face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Houston face Chicago in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Houston face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Houston face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face Chicago in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face San Francisco in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Pittsburgh face San Francisco in Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.