NFL · resolved market
Will Denver face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x233f6b6cdf0d2ccb255f1d2968ce05b1977c30e7dfc234f0646e41e593de7bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,892$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…26fdbacked Yes | 18c | 2,428$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 590$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Yes | 9c | 433.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 12c | 379.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 5c | 361.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 304.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 12c | 296.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Yes | 12c | 295.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 13c | 256.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 204.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…916ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Yes | 14c | 95.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 89.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 38c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denver face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Buffalo face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Buffalo face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Denver face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Houston face Chicago in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Houston face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Houston face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face Chicago in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face San Francisco in Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will New England face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Pittsburgh face San Francisco in Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.