Movies · resolved market
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62c99147e723aa691a507260799e08975730fff081b30975df8da230a41578d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed Yes | 12c | 2,126$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 8c | 999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 3c | 880.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 35c | 822.38$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.09 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Yes | 19c | 706.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 65c | 631.6$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 19c | 522.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked No | 74c | 472.43$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 15c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 50c | 344$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 310$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 19c | 267.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…7ac3backed Yes | 50c | 250.18$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed Yes | 13c | 209.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 37c | 204$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 196.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…1328backed Yes | 25c | 158.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 63c | 156$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 103.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 47c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9594…577dbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 21c | 55.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Cover-Up" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Eden" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Goodbye June" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.