Movies · resolved market
Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367bb8d95d552319061bb351197c34930870e1f4398d51011e8f433f08a29bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed No | 11c | 2,775$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 30c | 1,072$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.24 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 29c | 1,047$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.31 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 69c | 906.8$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.47 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 69c | 739$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 32c | 690$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.07 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked No | 17c | 671$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 69c | 666$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 69c | 484$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 31c | 484$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.96 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 31c | 481$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.89 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…cccbbacked No | 28c | 398.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 27c | 373.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 7c | 265.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…7763backed Yes | 31c | 259$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 26c | 241.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 19c | 227.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed No | 11c | 215.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 29c | 206$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 70c | 201.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 20c | 201.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed Yes | 53c | 177.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…1328backed No | 20c | 147.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 144.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 141.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 16c | 94.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 32c | 87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 79.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…3a49backed No | 20c | 75.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 32c | 69.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a8f8backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 71c | 37.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb41…a14dbacked Yes | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Cover-Up" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Eden" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Goodbye June" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.