TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
9zof TYLOO, 9z
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,427,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,576,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,427,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 925 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked TYLOO44c246,801$108,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,592.2942440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked TYLOO45c219,999$99,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,999.7114050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed 9z55c99,999$54,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,999.5320354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5291…d4b6backed 9z56c78,884$44,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,708.961963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TYLOO46c65,000$29,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,75050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed 9z55c60,196$33,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,826.110361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 9z55c56,746$31,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,603.3541649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TYLOO44c56,706$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,000.345,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed TYLOO43c50,517$21,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,925.6923839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked 9z55c50,000$27,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,70015245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed 9z57c47,380$27,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,190.9715052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed 9z74c44,444$32,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,555.447454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed 9z75c31,650$23,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,003.6625355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked TYLOO36c28,834$10,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,413.9616443.9%72 W · 92 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked 9z74c24,771$18,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,488.165742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 9z73c23,349$17,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,255.911,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e23…e933backed 9z74c21,000$15,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,46012660.3%76 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed 9z56c17,900$10,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,87633343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed 9z57c16,666$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,166.3815947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed TYLOO32c16,000$5,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,139.3730340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed TYLOO26c15,313$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.4110142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked 9z55c15,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,75025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed 9z54c14,435$7,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,639.995156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked TYLOO26c14,113$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.467047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed 9z80c13,821$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.9410359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed 9z57c12,736$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,536.448350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed TYLOO40c12,350$4,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,908.4913244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked 9z58c12,022$6,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,072.2125751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked 9z57c12,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,16036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed TYLOO46c11,340$5,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,201.523351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed 9z59c10,273$6,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,214.7637157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed TYLOO46c10,268$4,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,719.4920448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed 9z56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40022849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed TYLOO45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50016449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 9z74c9,922$7,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.82,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed 9z55c9,100$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.9419455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked 9z54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1401,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed 9z56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.5733359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed 9z56c8,888$4,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.7267041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed 9z64c8,838$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked 9z56c8,279$4,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,642.5725261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TYLOO44c7,871$3,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,428.664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed 9z54c7,609$4,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.1435153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed 9z55c7,391$4,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.0825147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked TYLOO44c7,061$3,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,106.871040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked 9z55c6,800$3,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0604544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed 9z56c6,747$3,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.5112451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed TYLOO45c6,667$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed 9z55c6,256$3,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.217643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed 9z54c6,219$3,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.5521945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed 9z62c6,021$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.3917162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed TYLOO25c6,004$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.9821854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed 9z55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70023354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed 9z56c6,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.9926952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa40…9e37backed 9z55c5,715$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,563.374440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 9z80c5,606$4,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.232,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed 9z56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.1436450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaf…b654backed 9z59c5,061$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked 9z56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20027658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed TYLOO25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2506737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed TYLOO17c4,898$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.359335.5%33 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked TYLOO26c4,690$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.861,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed TYLOO40c4,645$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85811547%54 W · 61 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed 9z74c4,525$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.7719659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked 9z59c4,500$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86017540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed 9z56c4,464$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.2912955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 9z75c4,457$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.595,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked 9z56c4,227$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.1913844.2%61 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked TYLOO0c4,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed 9z55c4,073$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.7319245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked TYLOO19c4,000$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.7869624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611f…b58fbacked 9z55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8001827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed 9z55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80012653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed 9z59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.9946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed 9z56c3,688$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.8611439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked 9z56c3,557$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.0319346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed 9z55c3,535$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.0122342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked 9z55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57528538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed 9z55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57511434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed 9z74c3,500$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.9966851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked 9z56c3,422$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.5935940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed 9z70c3,183$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.631764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 9z77c3,051$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.951,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked 9z60c3,036$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.5736453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed TYLOO33c3,023$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.895345.3%24 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked 9z54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38012956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed 9z59c2,990$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.5222358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed TYLOO44c2,949$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.4850051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed 9z56c2,801$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.3715349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TYLOO39c2,736$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0581,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked 9z56c2,682$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.9723646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed 9z56c2,679$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.5716732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed TYLOO36c2,632$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9509746.4%45 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed 9z79c2,546$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.0188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed 9z60c2,522$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.942142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed TYLOO42c2,500$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9a…af08backed TYLOO29c2,500$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed 9z54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.956245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 9z73c2,444$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.51,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 9z80c2,397$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.641,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.