TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof RED Canids, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$353,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,459 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea2b…1fc6backed FURIA Esports57c50,000$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,499.9714247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed RED Canids43c40,656$17,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,482.281,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FURIA Esports53c26,161$13,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,312.581,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked RED Canids43c26,140$11,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,197.457246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked FURIA Esports56c16,870$9,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,422.651,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked RED Canids1c16,665$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.31,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed RED Canids43c11,648$4,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,977.0859554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked RED Canids25c11,039$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.3614549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked FURIA Esports57c11,000$6,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7305242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c8d…65e7backed RED Canids44c9,942$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.581656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed FURIA Esports57c7,368$4,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,161.4659450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked FURIA Esports58c7,300$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.998934.8%31 W · 58 L-10.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed FURIA Esports56c6,353$3,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.9611860.2%71 W · 47 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+44.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked FURIA Esports59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.999853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed RED Canids43c5,828$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.1982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed RED Canids47c5,555$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.851,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked FURIA Esports56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked FURIA Esports55c4,888$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.61,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed RED Canids43c4,651$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.921,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed RED Canids45c4,556$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05048742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed RED Canids44c4,550$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00218467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed RED Canids44c4,376$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.7841133.8%139 W · 272 L-28.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed FURIA Esports57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7203946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FURIA Esports74c3,545$2,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.281,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed RED Canids42c3,351$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.0113130.5%40 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked RED Canids39c3,286$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.41,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FURIA Esports57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2902,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed RED Canids47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked RED Canids44c2,838$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.943442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed RED Canids47c2,830$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.113933.8%47 W · 92 L-14.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed FURIA Esports55c2,576$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.2921144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed FURIA Esports56c2,456$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.0611547.8%55 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA Esports60c2,259$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.7528253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RED Canids11c2,224$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.181,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed RED Canids13c2,203$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.213418.7%25 W · 109 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed RED Canids46c2,095$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.419232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed FURIA Esports58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…6e71backed RED Canids2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011521.7%25 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed RED Canids45c1,949$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.0918336.6%67 W · 116 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed RED Canids26c1,921$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.3932755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked RED Canids45c1,886$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.3824434.4%84 W · 160 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed FURIA Esports52c1,700$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.191,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed RED Canids42c1,677$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.486414.1%9 W · 55 L-16.9wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-69.2%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed RED Canids30c1,648$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.961,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports63c1,648$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.322,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed RED Canids42c1,561$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.4543837.9%166 W · 272 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed RED Canids25c1,535$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.6310648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed FURIA Esports57c1,481$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.4744451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked RED Canids40c1,473$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.1520826.9%56 W · 152 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed RED Canids15c1,440$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.771,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked RED Canids2c1,410$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.11140%0 W · 114 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed RED Canids43c1,410$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.0936034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed RED Canids44c1,395$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61413831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed RED Canids43c1,349$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.073956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed FURIA Esports58c1,324$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.1964443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked FURIA Esports57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5592281.8%18 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e93…439cbacked RED Canids47c1,299$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd273…9a33backed RED Canids45c1,280$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5762634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa1…bf72backed RED Canids47c1,266$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c27…40bfbacked RED Canids47c1,252$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked RED Canids42c1,242$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6617339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed FURIA Esports57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5162669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed RED Canids48c1,191$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.7723938.1%91 W · 148 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed FURIA Esports57c1,190$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.8136047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed RED Canids44c1,188$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.6941343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked RED Canids21c1,112$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5512442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc9…a64cbacked RED Canids44c1,110$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.882536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked RED Canids47c1,100$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51348847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed RED Canids52c1,094$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.391,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked RED Canids49c1,077$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.640145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked RED Canids42c1,052$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.744245.9%203 W · 239 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b3…a28dbacked FURIA Esports76c1,052$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5118065%117 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed FURIA Esports54c1,028$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.6786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed FURIA Esports65c1,022$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.651,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd508…0009backed RED Canids44c1,010$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked FURIA Esports72c1,000$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28563646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed RED Canids47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4702934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked RED Canids47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4705429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked RED Canids47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010539%41 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed FURIA Esports57c1,000$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43275738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked FURIA Esports57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4308652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82af…f7d1backed RED Canids47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed RED Canids44c999.99$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44049847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed FURIA Esports56c994$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.3630050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed RED Canids46c984.99$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.055145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked RED Canids42c980.95$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41211851.7%61 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed RED Canids41c975.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed RED Canids45c963.2$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43522644.2%100 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked RED Canids24c930$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2258420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed RED Canids9c813.16$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7169539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA Esports68c809.49$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.991,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed RED Canids43c804$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34210938.5%42 W · 67 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked RED Canids23c800$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.242,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed FURIA Esports57c790.01$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.2438640.4%156 W · 230 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked FURIA Esports79c784.97$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8822245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0497…c5e3backed RED Canids19c780$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed RED Canids47c777$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed RED Canids45c772.14$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.467936.7%29 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked RED Canids45c732.46$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9629940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa485…a7d5backed RED Canids22c720.16$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8425345.8%116 W · 137 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.