Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce581e29bd8d3167ad16b6f87a97276a1e535f121a969ae2d70e6ee9138aa66d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 43c | 10,466$4,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,543.7 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Under | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 57c | 3,706$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.18 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Over | 44c | 951.93$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Over | 43c | 601.61$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.69 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over | 43c | 567.35$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.96 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Over | 43c | 552.37$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.52 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Over | 43c | 551.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 52c | 506.03$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.89 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 56c | 470.43$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 194 | 37.6%73 W · 121 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Over | 43c | 453.49$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Over | 43c | 309.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Over | 43c | 206.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Over | 43c | 186.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6a…9a1fbacked Over | 43c | 179.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 42c | 128.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Over | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 197 | 52.8%104 W · 93 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Over | 43c | 90.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767f…533dbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…4b88backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 58c | 28.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…01bdbacked Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)FURIA Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsFURIA Esports won
- LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.