World Politics · resolved market
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7ed3a71f4427c899e8e44d47b49d3230399e5b5bd45a33f19a55f0d5639e445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $513,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $513,194 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 0c | 67,029$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 66,376$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 0c | 33,392$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 33,126$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…5f3abacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed Yes | 0c | 31,809$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 0c | 31,190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…4974backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…0451backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…33f6backed Yes | 1c | 19,020$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…ca8cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…3572backed Yes | 1c | 13,703$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…6128backed Yes | 0c | 13,579$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…c36fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,562$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab9…b137backed Yes | 0c | 11,110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…075bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…a909backed Yes | 0c | 10,159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…b885backed Yes | 0c | 10,141$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 0c | 10,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…9c08backed Yes | 0c | 10,070$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,010$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…46e1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…c561backed Yes | 0c | 8,323$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 6,965$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…bc10backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…9432backed Yes | 0c | 5,905$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…60debacked Yes | 0c | 5,646$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…2f34backed Yes | 1c | 5,499$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…03acbacked Yes | 0c | 5,060$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…c753backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…b77cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8375…aa03backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 4,513$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 4,355$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,174$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +73%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,040$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 1c | 3,012$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…7fa1backed Yes | 1c | 2,876$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 0c | 2,818$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,006$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…04e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,922$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…b57dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,403$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…312ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,246$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…48d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,052$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 4c | 753.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…5272backed Yes | 2c | 738.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…2627backed Yes | 3c | 405.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?this page
- Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election?No won
- Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?Yes won
- Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election?No won
- Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?No won
- Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?No won
- Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.