Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400644f216fb6712b7d0c88cb6810299d0939411b7492865dbfe2a9325b711aa

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $100,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,147 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1189…1860backed Yes	0c	82,924$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes	0c	82,924$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1586…d8a1backed Yes	0c	82,924$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes	0c	82,755$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.76	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3687…49f5backed Yes	0c	82,755$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.76	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1edebacked Yes	0c	82,664$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37df…cd2abacked Yes	0c	82,664$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50f8…2175backed Yes	0c	82,664$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…ee88backed Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc13e…d47dbacked Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67c2…b38fbacked Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e9…1cbbbacked Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…b4debacked Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes	0c	42,681$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…2f49backed Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…299ebacked Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x852c…31a8backed Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…7340backed Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84eb…b36dbacked Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd12…8bcfbacked Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd170…15b6backed Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes	0c	42,512$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…d0a1backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb827…664abacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x933a…1a41backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c09…74bfbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe536…b501backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…c36dbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab58…fa7cbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…2e63backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26e5…947ebacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…4c68backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…38a7backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaeff…0138backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…f4bdbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a94…ecdcbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeca3…1288backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b4…9291backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc69…b1acbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25d3…da39backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4117…8cd4backed Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x403e…4a9cbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…c25ebacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked Yes	0c	42,421$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d3…bd4dbacked Yes	0c	42,400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	41,901$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes	0c	41,041$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd42…eb82backed Yes	0c	40,243$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…30efbacked Yes	0c	40,243$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…0135backed Yes	0c	40,243$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes	0c	40,243$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7534…c561backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	7c	5,678$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.46	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	1c	4,239$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	101	8.9%9 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+115.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	3c	550$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	457	23.2%106 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	8c	250$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?this page
Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election?No won
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?Yes won
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election?No won
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?No won
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?No won
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event