TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,795 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2981…9e61backed Yes0c125,703$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…3cf8backed Yes0c110,211$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ff…5101backed Yes0c110,211$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…30efbacked Yes0c110,211$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…d489backed Yes0c110,211$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes0c110,211$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c110,211$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe332…7b2abacked Yes0c110,042$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e10…e35abacked Yes0c110,042$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes0c110,042$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…c011backed Yes0c110,042$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…c174backed Yes0c105,721$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea0…15c8backed Yes0c105,721$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17e…3fbdbacked Yes0c105,721$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…6483backed Yes0c105,721$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46c2…611bbacked Yes0c105,721$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a28…0575backed Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4284…f035backed Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1760…76fabacked Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…c26dbacked Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0440…4280backed Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b4…15b2backed Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533e…d305backed Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5416…6c49backed Yes0c105,552$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…0135backed Yes0c105,531$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…299ebacked Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933a…1a41backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…2e63backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1586…d8a1backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeff…0138backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca3…1288backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc69…b1acbacked Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d3…da39backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd170…15b6backed Yes0c88,818$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…2f49backed Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852c…31a8backed Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c09…74bfbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…c36dbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab58…fa7cbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e5…947ebacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…4c68backed Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e9…1cbbbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d3…bd4dbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84eb…b36dbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a94…ecdcbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b4…9291backed Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403e…4a9cbacked Yes0c84,328$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe362…0a47backed Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…476fbacked Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…1babbacked Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…d5b6backed Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…927bbacked Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735a…8097backed Yes0c67,816$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe44…d604backed Yes0c67,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd42…eb82backed Yes0c67,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x184e…7984backed Yes0c67,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc6…80c9backed Yes0c67,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2724…7490backed Yes0c67,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4018…1bc8backed Yes0c67,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b6…d96fbacked Yes0c63,788$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…bd60backed Yes0c63,326$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebe…81b7backed Yes0c63,326$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ef…0607backed Yes0c63,326$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f5…c3fbbacked Yes0c63,326$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…73c7backed Yes0c63,157$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9383…65dfbacked Yes0c63,157$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…2279backed Yes0c63,157$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…5aeabacked Yes0c63,157$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd008…5630backed Yes0c63,157$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9041…d1cfbacked Yes0c63,157$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1189…1860backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…ee88backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb827…664abacked Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe536…b501backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3687…49f5backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13e…d47dbacked Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…7340backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…b4debacked Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…f4bdbacked Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd12…8bcfbacked Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4117…8cd4backed Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…c25ebacked Yes0c46,423$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…d0a1backed Yes0c41,934$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c2…b38fbacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…38a7backed Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…430cbacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1edebacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37df…cd2abacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked Yes0c41,933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.