TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,060,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,060,358 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes1c207,141$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1e…3760backed Yes7c136,337$9,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,567.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bed…f104backed Yes5c111,946$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed Yes4c111,204$4,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,454.46955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes3c103,081$2,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef3…adefbacked Yes6c102,003$6,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,391.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4504…6f71backed Yes9c89,480$8,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,127.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7667…6cfdbacked Yes4c71,336$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c63,150$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.066883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c49,351$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.994440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Yes1c48,619$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6b…6d70backed Yes2c48,100$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04a…d7ecbacked Yes6c41,961$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.44540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca2…a745backed Yes4c39,928$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes3c33,191$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.67326.3%2 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c30,364$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.62344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6959backed Yes1c27,233$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ab…a612backed Yes6c26,000$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes4c25,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d72…a6a6backed Yes3c23,498$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1025…942abacked Yes2c20,872$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes5c20,813$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c20,334$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.01410%0 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…04fabacked Yes1c20,205$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.011127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes0c18,367$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92583.4%2 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes2c18,283$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.236836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fb58backed Yes6c15,985$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10e…a44abacked Yes2c15,887$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4420…ea24backed Yes3c15,665$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2360…28cdbacked Yes3c15,255$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…1017backed Yes4c15,040$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.73837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61a0…27d3backed Yes6c14,474$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1144…312ebacked Yes1c13,805$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c3d…9431backed Yes0c13,803$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3237…8047backed Yes4c12,900$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c12,720$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.861691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7c…ac5dbacked Yes3c12,651$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc00…aba0backed Yes4c11,562$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b1…1d36backed Yes2c10,798$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221a…5ff0backed Yes2c10,200$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…3460backed Yes1c10,198$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55fc…a2fdbacked Yes1c10,183$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d3…f6cfbacked Yes1c10,170$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3659…0451backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10360%0 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e2…0db3backed Yes1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfa…54a5backed Yes3c9,621$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc9…45e2backed Yes2c9,608$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a29…ff3bbacked Yes1c9,596$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…14f7backed Yes2c9,434$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b0…78f7backed Yes1c9,357$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9219…4facbacked Yes2c9,330$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…cd30backed Yes1c8,905$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked Yes4c8,383$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff70…2475backed Yes6c8,019$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafb…7566backed Yes0c8,005$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x786f…93fcbacked Yes5c7,802$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0b…3282backed Yes7c7,623$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…84fdbacked Yes3c7,465$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf8…32ffbacked Yes4c7,362$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f17…fac0backed Yes1c7,221$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6b…4141backed Yes2c7,170$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c7,073$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.744766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fb…af61backed Yes5c7,024$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes5c7,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35048224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe15…3fe8backed Yes2c6,803$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab6…6eecbacked Yes5c6,783$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf692…8655backed Yes3c6,764$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes11c6,712$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…677cbacked Yes2c6,517$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb38…56f8backed Yes2c6,480$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1470…608abacked Yes8c6,442$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c6,379$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.49772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…c2e8backed Yes3c6,146$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1817…d590backed Yes6c6,110$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7237…1e5dbacked Yes2c5,980$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c5,979$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.721,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…5e40backed Yes2c5,948$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c51…ac45backed Yes0c5,748$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ad…79bdbacked Yes4c5,738$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…16fabacked Yes8c5,523$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5979…3a7dbacked Yes2c5,465$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.03333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205d…f87bbacked Yes3c5,349$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb341…aae2backed Yes1c5,333$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbd…64f4backed Yes7c5,322$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c5,186$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.141152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a8…6742backed Yes2c5,105$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.891330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes2c5,000$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.513925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2208…5941backed Yes4c4,861$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed Yes0c4,836$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.193145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+67.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e60…f42cbacked Yes6c4,790$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x418e…1bedbacked Yes3c4,698$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4860…1a00backed Yes5c4,654$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08b6…09d9backed Yes5c4,548$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa402…4d84backed Yes3c4,366$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8f46backed Yes1c4,366$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…3102backed Yes2c4,217$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c4,155$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.16446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x999d…3173backed Yes2c4,155$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.