TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,723 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes34c604.59$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.491,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No61c522.93$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.89634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No61c510.31$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.352,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No64c438.9$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.911459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No59c430.16$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.641,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes45c410.73$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0511337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes2c409.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1320144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes43c340.88$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1468134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c312.27$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.112,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No53c232.18$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes45c225.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No57c223$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5163757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2403…4a2ebacked Yes47c213.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes42c210$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No57c206.19$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3871159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No56c185.08$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No59c182.5$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.193,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes39c175.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.437628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No64c154.4$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0413755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85db…1423backed No67c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.576666.7%44 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c149.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.591,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No56c141.81$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.311,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes42c141.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No59c136.39$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf95…d76ebacked Yes44c133.24$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.241172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No59c130.86$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.265965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes47c128.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.983,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes39c128.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.077,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c125.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No55c124.91$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.941,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6930…d846backed No53c119.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c119.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes40c117.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.261,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c116.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c113.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.853,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes40c112.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.211,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c109.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes46c109.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes39c108.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.84628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc60…66a2backed Yes46c107.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes45c106$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8713941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No54c103$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3827669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes49c102$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes38c101.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No55c100.18$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0953925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes44c100.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.551,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4129953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes42c97.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No61c96.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes42c95.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No57c91.45$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.731,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6739…a52ebacked Yes50c91.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.621020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77d1…6d42backed Yes46c90.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.06955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21fb…842cbacked Yes51c90.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.414934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c89.34$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.774,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No53c86.81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c86.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c85.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No56c79.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes39c79.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.952317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c77.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes44c76.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4734846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes43c72.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.94540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c70.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.517231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes45c66.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c61.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.873,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.045,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.424466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5bd…339abacked Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes44c59.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.293636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes37c59.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes40c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes35c58.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3916263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.234,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes44c56.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes44c56.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes44c55.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9216840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c000backed Yes36c54.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed Yes34c54.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6411257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c54.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes47c53.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc90…f8edbacked Yes47c52.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes39c50.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x326b…eca1backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes33c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x109e…9a31backed No61c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.673844.7%17 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbc4…4f2cbacked Yes46c49.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.