TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,046 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes49c1,278$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.551,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No2c627.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.451,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No74c520.4$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.842,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No62c497.3$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.411,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes34c457$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.0742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes19c399.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.897628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes25c392.66$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2112228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c342.23$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.915,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No62c308.82$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.672,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e54…7986backed No37c282.69$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No37c278.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.711,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No65c265.82$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c259.19$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.369,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes37c258.1$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.18134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No55c256.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0176755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes26c246.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.668645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No9c239.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c226$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No65c217.93$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c198.77$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c194.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.971,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No25c191.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2153925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No7c173.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c170.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.121,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes62c162.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4837942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes23c148$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.528551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb64a…0c47backed No74c134.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c130.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes47c128.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.333740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes24c127.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c123.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xecad…f818backed No49c122.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No68c119.52$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.441,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No11c104.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.661,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes31c102.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1812941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No48c102$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.024,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8e…cf0fbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…6e0dbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa77c…ddccbacked No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-77.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3594…cd28backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795158.8%30 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x640c…0b67backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x117a…b669backed No79c99.93$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6739…a52ebacked Yes57c97.69$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.691020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes33c92.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.085547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c92.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.751,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c91.9$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.193,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed Yes30c91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.476717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No13c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.452,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes20c89.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No72c87.62$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.392,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes21c86.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.643430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed No75c85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c83.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c81.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b4…a38abacked No14c80.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-81.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No80c79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes48c76.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5211038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes35c73.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…8cebbacked Yes33c72.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.772917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No70c72.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.411,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Yes29c67.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.017047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes30c66.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes35c66.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.343,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No48c64.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.238036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes45c64.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.539634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes33c62.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1551553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.073,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes19c61.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.213528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes45c61.3$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5634533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c60.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8367633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No70c60.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6891861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5bd…339abacked Yes19c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes51c55.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0225344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1511947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes27c54.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.634628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes55c54.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.363636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes28c54.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.124652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes40c53.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.39744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes33c53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5224053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2310439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x263d…fc4cbacked No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No55c49.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.491,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes23c49.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.328337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes42c48.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3735233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes25c45.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.611515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No79c43.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes52c41.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.681,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes61c40.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9320144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7da…138cbacked No65c40.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.041586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+28.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No56c37.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed No71c36.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No56c35.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x996b…ec84backed Yes35c35.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No74c34.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8681756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes48c34.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1461929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes66c33.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.491,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8780…5f74backed Yes68c32.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.16757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.