TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes1c2,117$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.261,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c1,141$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes6c1,089$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.891,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c932.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.261,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes2c560$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4735232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No77c510.31$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.412,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes6c499.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes20c410.58$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8317135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No80c407.29$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.961,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No79c355.39$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.172,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes7c350.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3130813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21fb…842cbacked Yes27c341.69$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.54934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed Yes9c325.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes5c312$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.321216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes7c277.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c248.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c204.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.671,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes21c199.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.511337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7596…02a9backed Yes9c172.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes10c160.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes16c158.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.791,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No80c154.52$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes13c149.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No74c135.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…e251backed No74c134.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.58580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick78cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No74c130.56$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes27c129.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed No77c129.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1110351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes29c122.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No71c121.67$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes12c121.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.748,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c117.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.041,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Yes19c107.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No74c107.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5133567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x361c…d705backed Yes16c100.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-48.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…fd80backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes15c99.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes20c95.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.854628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes16c92.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed Yes24c89.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7411257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes28c87.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.353636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c82.83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.824,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c82.11$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes19c78.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes26c77.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes29c77.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes14c76.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c75.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes26c75.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6929941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes14c70.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3594…cd28backed Yes22c69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.185158.8%30 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f5…923abacked Yes16c66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.883740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes15c64.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.025042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c63.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No70c62.31$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3917071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No73c61.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.692,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5bd…339abacked Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca12…ea73backed Yes24c58.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c56.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.264,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31d…b5f1backed Yes19c56.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes20c54.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes28c53.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x326b…eca1backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c49.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.725,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No80c48.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.941,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No75c48.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2926067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…3269backed Yes23c46.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e69…5f67backed Yes24c45.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+179.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes23c44.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.411225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c44.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked No72c41.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6612851.6%66 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No76c40.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8819353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5651553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No74c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No75c34.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc432…8562backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.343,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c27.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…24efbacked Yes36c27.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c23.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No77c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3124053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No73c22.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0213765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c17.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3150373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No77c16.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.883,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.646561.5%40 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.