TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paulof Ruud, Paul
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Paul45c15,441$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,441.4736346.8%170 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Paul44c11,000$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,159.978060%48 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Ruud55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.998940.4%36 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Ruud56c4,970$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.0711852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Ruud55c3,588$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.559741.2%40 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Ruud56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Ruud56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8408239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Paul44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8402751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Ruud52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78022449.6%111 W · 113 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed Ruud56c1,250$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.993528.6%10 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Ruud44c999.71$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.8719146.6%89 W · 102 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Paul56c858.63$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.81,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ruud23c799.68$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.449,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Ruud56c793.68$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.317,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Ruud56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39219452.1%101 W · 93 L-13.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Ruud59c677.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030948.9%151 W · 158 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Ruud59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35410848.1%52 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Ruud56c506.68$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.743644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9345…0afbbacked Ruud55c448.99$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick62cpaid-60.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Ruud54c422.17$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.062,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Ruud55c364$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.23141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Ruud59c254.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15068157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Paul44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Paul45c244.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4448637.7%183 W · 303 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Ruud56c187.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055347.2%25 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Ruud56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Ruud56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3c…9f22backed Ruud56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003450%17 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b6…ae5dbacked Ruud56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf479…2d49backed Ruud56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002552%13 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Ruud59c161.32$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.182540%10 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+181.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e4…53bbbacked Paul44c135.03$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.033056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Ruud54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.21,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Ruud55c125$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7538741.1%159 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf795…ab90backed Paul43c113.95$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.959740.2%39 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f84…98f1backed Ruud56c110.71$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623250%16 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Ruud57c100.07$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.637,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Ruud56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5619151.8%99 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Ruud56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030053.3%160 W · 140 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34b8…780ebacked Ruud59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504257.1%24 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Paul56c80.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.361,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Paul56c60.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.712,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Ruud26c55.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48dd…351abacked Ruud56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Paul44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2858745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Paul41c47.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9968935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Ruud30c43.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfb…0dfabacked Ruud46c42.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Ruud56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2094058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff6…0918backed Ruud54c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7149857%284 W · 214 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc15c…a6b0backed Ruud53c26.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1928758.5%168 W · 119 L-1.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Paul45c25.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0613650%68 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Ruud57c21.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1725659%151 W · 105 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c03…31bbbacked Ruud56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28263.4%52 W · 30 L+9.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Ruud56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.293557.3%536 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Ruud55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1159366.8%396 W · 197 L-0.6wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Ruud57c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.49244.6%41 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b30…2209backed Ruud59c17.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.053360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.