Tennis · resolved market
Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec279e0d93ce19e705078446e1f9be3ac6d73a7ce5e3c79780ef87980df0b18f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 803.57$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.22 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…be5dbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 291$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…98d9backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 256.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 119.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under 3.5 | 38c | 99.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 98.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 98.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 79.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 61.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…7336backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 58.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 56.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over 3.5 | 63c | 55.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over 3.5 | 77c | 51.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 43.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 31.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 3.5 | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulCasper Ruud won
- Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs PaulPaul won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)Paul won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5)Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.