Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b964e91eb2d524c79e70743bae29db249f2fd0074474c936508ffd9acb74366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 45c | 3,322$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.09 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 37c | 3,156$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.51 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 17c | 1,549$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.15 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 74c | 1,099$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 70c | 858.96$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.79 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 17c | 800.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 26c | 770.72$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 24c | 721.65$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 24c | 721.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.34 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 12c | 631.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.08 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 573.06$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 567.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 522.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.75 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 429.1$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 395.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 13c | 391.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.38 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 385.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.89 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 58c | 356.63$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 352.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 16c | 348.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.25 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 343.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 20c | 342.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.09 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 34c | 326.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 12c | 301.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.55 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 298$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 287.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.58 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 12c | 287.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 23c | 279.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.95 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed No | 68c | 258.79$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…1fdbbacked No | 76c | 256.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 243.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 240.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 8c | 236.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.34 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 54c | 232.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 54c | 211.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 198.14$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 195.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 55c | 190.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 58c | 179.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 171.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 59c | 163.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 16c | 159.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 40c | 159.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 57c | 158.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 14c | 151.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 20c | 150.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.67 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes | 32c | 150.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 67c | 149.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 45c | 147.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 67c | 144.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 143.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 48c | 139.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 16c | 129.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 19c | 127.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 10c | 127.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 126.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 37c | 122.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 118$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 116.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 115.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 31c | 114.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 16c | 113.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 23c | 111.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a23…765fbacked Yes | 12c | 110.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +767%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked No | 26c | 106.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 70c | 104.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 25c | 101.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 71c | 97.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 97.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 26c | 97.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 32c | 94.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 91.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 12c | 85.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…b767backed No | 28c | 83.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 61c | 78.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 15c | 77.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 70.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 77c | 67.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 67.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 66.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 25c | 66.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 27c | 66.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 79c | 65.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 79c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked No | 79c | 59.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 58.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 26c | 57.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 36c | 51.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 50.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 26c | 50.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.