TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,353 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c1,717$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.371,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes18c1,226$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.91,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No78c739.94$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7810843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes26c581.68$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.35427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes34c520.5$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.682544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes4c508.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.155332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes11c506.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.657614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed No77c423.68$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.021330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c346.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.627,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Yes31c345.38$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.52,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c296.66$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.981165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes25c288.39$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.075846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c282.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.082,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c276.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c33…eb97backed Yes19c262.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes29c249.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes25c246.02$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c244.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c236.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.531,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes35c227.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.468643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc226…ee11backed Yes21c220.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0a…50adbacked No65c213.15$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c208.8$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.981,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c203.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.619,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c184.81$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeedd…52d4backed Yes18c183.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes23c170.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c148.58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.847,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes25c131.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes14c127.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No76c127.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3439951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No79c109.24$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.538239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No72c106.21$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0833567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes24c102.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.172321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c99.38$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes27c98.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7628648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c97.03$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.282,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes30c87.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9517033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes14c87.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.153,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb201…2766backed Yes35c86.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.053946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes34c83.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.124139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c81.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.693,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d66…a545backed Yes29c78.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8511469.3%79 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3e…998fbacked Yes37c77.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes35c75.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.583240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes33c75.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0638…df07backed Yes38c74.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.141855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes29c73.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5514632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ea…6b1abacked Yes32c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes30c65.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3911438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes23c65.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes23c64.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.086719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes25c64.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1913424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ad…8c4ebacked Yes29c64.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No76c63.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes34c62.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.995349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf45d…4039backed Yes30c61.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No65c61.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes25c60.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.415545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes35c59.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.916030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes28c58.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.443333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes21c58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.966825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46f…3cbcbacked Yes33c56.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.664742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes20c55.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No66c55.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.974,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc524…3633backed No78c54.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.842080%16 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes36c53.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2511129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No68c53.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.122450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…76afbacked Yes20c52.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.567844.9%35 W · 43 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x554a…21bebacked Yes27c51.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes27c50.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7740739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b1…f521backed Yes28c50.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.142123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde72…b5b1backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121131.8%67 W · 144 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0241…bfe7backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fb…6d55backed No78c49.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c49.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c49.14$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.713,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes35c48.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c48.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.365,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes33c46.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.396144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes29c46.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No79c45.43$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7627771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes33c43.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No66c42.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4962770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c42.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.212,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes27c42.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.322420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes27c41.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.123246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No72c41.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes34c39.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed No79c39.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.223941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes33c38.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x884c…2ee9backed Yes32c38.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes28c37.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes36c36.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9313941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No69c35.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8811977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.