TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes46c897.34$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes31c760.15$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.131,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf383…c49fbacked Yes2c503.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes43c460.42$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.425427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c416.52$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.193,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c416.45$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.788,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c409.21$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.121,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes38c391.83$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.211637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes49c388.48$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.942544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes56c340.7$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.237146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed No68c324.7$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1510845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No76c311.51$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No53c299.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.995547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c297.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3181165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…844fbacked Yes45c291.46$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.233423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes48c291.14$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4510843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No72c266.16$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.115570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c264.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c262.3$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes43c251.23$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.595,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes18c250.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3418327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes46c234.47$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.848643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes16c234.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9226434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes24c231.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.172441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes23c226.06$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.975050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes47c219.19$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes47c200.02$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes50c191.16$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c176.8$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.63,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes44c174.54$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes36c173.3$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.794148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c169.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.712,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes32c165.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes41c159.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8725839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes42c158.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6311146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes44c156$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1213424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1f…5154backed Yes62c147.2$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.374445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c146.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No54c134$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.642,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes39c133.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.531838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes43c130.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3111646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes54c127.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0211249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No48c127.75$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.111925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce8a…ec34backed Yes37c125.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes40c122.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c122.45$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.199,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No56c122.39$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.341,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed No69c116.31$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.77560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes34c113.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.293333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes34c112.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0516157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes37c111.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.863,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No56c109.54$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.662,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No55c108.25$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7646626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes24c108$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.141,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No53c105.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.541353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+179.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc93b…9e73backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes36c99.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes47c99.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.734037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes47c97.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf45d…4039backed Yes49c97.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c95.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c95.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.839,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes39c89.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9815545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd02…5e41backed No57c87.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.76454.7%35 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes47c87.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.585729.8%17 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb201…2766backed Yes49c87.31$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.963946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes45c86.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.873246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes45c86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.784139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.929753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No65c76.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.929553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes43c75.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No55c75.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes40c73.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.495846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5812…8c24backed Yes45c71.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x925f…70c2backed Yes40c70.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes57c67.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.325349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c66.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes46c62.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes54c62.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.591330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes56c61.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.571827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94c…3fe4backed Yes51c61.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e7…04a6backed Yes46c61.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.444738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c61.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes60c61.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.827955.7%44 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.616234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9921…3270backed Yes57c58.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.19540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No73c57.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5641258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes50c57.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.353855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes50c57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.519848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes26c57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes40c54.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.211,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No60c54.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5535…8b00backed Yes35c53.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.