TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes3c2,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.73329.4%3 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c912.3$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.765,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c757.48$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.015,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c730.3$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.092,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes10c599.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.732334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes68c579.97$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.7227047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes3c532.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes40c499.57$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.826540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes41c404.06$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No32c370.39$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.4745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c360.44$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.273,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18c6…a105backed No54c342.04$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c334.83$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.185,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c312$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.923,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes40c309.18$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.283,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes49c308.61$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3442849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No69c283.71$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c268.38$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.364,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes79c252$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4333561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c250$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.893,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes41c244.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes46c241.76$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.14734%16 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c223.56$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.081,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes45c222.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2537942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes34c215.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.177,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes73c205.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes45c200.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.992437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No71c190.48$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.812,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c190$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes44c185.32$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c179.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No54c178.1$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c172.95$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.684,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No54c170.45$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1619648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c164.54$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes47c159.78$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7518035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c145.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.852,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No18c145.87$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.042,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4500…115dbacked Yes45c128.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes34c127.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2245236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40d6…1935backed Yes62c125$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.154566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No56c124.05$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.661,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No58c119.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c119.3$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.991,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No56c118.74$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6119662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c116.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.93,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9f…012fbacked Yes48c111.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd3…a457backed Yes46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.64932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes30c109.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No54c108.33$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x558d…b8dcbacked Yes33c107.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.581942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes44c102.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.451,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No55c99.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.994344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c99.51$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No40c98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.141,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes47c94.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.211,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes32c94.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4b…f395backed Yes45c92.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.111546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Yes45c91.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.142850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No54c90.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6641760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No63c89.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c88.61$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.882,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes40c85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes42c85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5523668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27e9…2ea4backed Yes47c84.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c81.57$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.472,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb912…7e38backed Yes79c81.5$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c80.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes40c79.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3212747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No41c79.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes44c79.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c79.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes67c79.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.62,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No77c74.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.032,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x273c…9125backed No54c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.551637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes40c73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb76…de58backed Yes36c72.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb085…cde9backed Yes69c72.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes69c71.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes32c70.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7712832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes57c70.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes43c70.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes72c69.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed Yes43c68.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3529351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes54c68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.722,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed Yes74c67.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+100.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No30c66.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.747817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8f…bc5cbacked Yes39c63.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes59c62.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.892,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c61.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.411,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes29c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes52c59.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8614334.3%49 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No67c59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.452,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd090…3bc5backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes32c58.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.