Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru or Hans win 3rd place in SCC 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805f6fe1dc96bdb9535f1443830f72b24bf02019ed419727512afe8095c25330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaruof Hikaru, Hans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Hans | 2c | 6,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Hans | 24c | 3,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed Hikaru | 76c | 3,211$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Hans | 25c | 2,466$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked Hans | 20c | 1,768$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…cd1cbacked Hans | 9c | 1,740$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Hans | 20c | 1,705$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Hikaru | 78c | 1,446$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Hans | 13c | 1,317$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Hans | 16c | 1,010$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Hans | 22c | 1,009$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.68 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Hikaru | 79c | 944.11$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Hans | 14c | 584.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Hans | 22c | 458.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Hans | 17c | 303.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Hikaru | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Hans | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Hans | 23c | 254$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…5039backed Hans | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Hans | 21c | 225$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Hikaru | 79c | 192.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…698fbacked Hans | 24c | 191.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Hans | 24c | 187.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…fcc4backed Hikaru | 78c | 165.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Hikaru | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Hans | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Hikaru | 77c | 142.05$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9dd0backed Hans | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hikaru | 75c | 133.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Hikaru | 79c | 129.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Hans | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Hans | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Hikaru | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Hikaru | 75c | 89.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Hikaru | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Hans | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Hans | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.