World Politics · resolved market
Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20aa870ee159a69c7acec8dad3a5b483e25849709010282f247b6651fd39b4d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $522,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $500,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef44…d48fbacked No | 10c | 24,192$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…d7a3backed No | 7c | 18,079$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…b781backed No | 2c | 16,442$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…cc08backed No | 8c | 15,426$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5386backed No | 7c | 13,151$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…5499backed No | 1c | 12,521$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…69c2backed No | 1c | 9,841$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 6c | 8,465$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.83 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb463…aa6abacked No | 10c | 8,186$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 6c | 7,550$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.05 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked No | 2c | 7,295$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…0c8fbacked No | 5c | 6,213$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…d4b0backed No | 2c | 5,805$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…23a4backed No | 13c | 4,803$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…4cd2backed No | 6c | 4,327$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +229.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed No | 3c | 3,037$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…1094backed No | 10c | 1,992$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 5c | 1,829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…8224backed No | 12c | 1,747$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7971…a234backed No | 8c | 1,729$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…9dffbacked No | 12c | 1,725$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3522…b100backed No | 1c | 1,675$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…72aebacked No | 4c | 1,672$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 19c | 1,600$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…de34backed No | 1c | 1,523$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…212cbacked No | 1c | 1,443$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…40c0backed No | 12c | 1,302$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +403.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…2958backed No | 23c | 1,226$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 18c | 1,104$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc8…80bcbacked No | 11c | 1,028$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…6ef6backed No | 3c | 961.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed No | 20c | 739.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…e67dbacked No | 21c | 631.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…cae6backed No | 7c | 620.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…1201backed No | 2c | 557.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 9c | 451.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…70babacked No | 6c | 390$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…bbbbbacked No | 10c | 386$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 20c | 377.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 4c | 375$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…29ffbacked No | 5c | 355.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…ce10backed No | 9c | 299$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 7c | 287.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…f015backed No | 12c | 279.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 11c | 211.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…1239backed No | 10c | 199.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 14c | 190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bfedbacked No | 8c | 187.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…69aabacked No | 8c | 173.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…01d0backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 19c | 78.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…ae0ebacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 78c | 60.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…b6acbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…1bc1backed Yes | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…fd47backed Yes | 77c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bd…5035backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly?this page
- Will La France Insoumise win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will Renaissance win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will The Republicans win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.