World Politics · resolved market
Will Renaissance win the most seats in the National Assembly?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e86c7b9d091ffb93edb039f7b83f4e26f59d7ef1d55ae67634453d3bc4cb668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 12,330$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes | 2c | 9,861$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 6c | 6,500$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 1c | 2,973$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 1c | 2,696$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,303$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…4ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,809$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…7a73backed Yes | 9c | 1,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 6c | 1,114$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 9c | 1,056$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…69aabacked Yes | 7c | 725.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes | 7c | 714.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…d48fbacked Yes | 10c | 607.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 17c | 332.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…e67dbacked Yes | 25c | 200.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…6ccfbacked No | 76c | 76.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…b6acbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…c6dcbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 75c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Renaissance win the most seats in the National Assembly?this page
- Will La France Insoumise win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly?Yes won
- Will The Republicans win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the National Assembly?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.