Poker · resolved market
Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c2e902df0284513bdddc8e15ef350f1946c8e84f63ccae4169761ffb918f267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e2…cc25backed Yes | 24c | 3,823$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 58c | 2,685$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 76c | 1,965$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +192.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…1438backed Yes | 50c | 1,787$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…87ecbacked Yes | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 53c | 1,589$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 76c | 1,550$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 38c | 1,125$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…b342backed Yes | 37c | 1,017$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…fcc1backed Yes | 48c | 825$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…be3abacked Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 20c | 584.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7cebbacked Yes | 24c | 583.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e646backed Yes | 35c | 573.32$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 66c | 570$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…1aa9backed Yes | 45c | 545.58$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…5126backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…7b41backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…ed83backed Yes | 22c | 392.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…3913backed Yes | 26c | 379.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…1391backed Yes | 18c | 325.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 77c | 320$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…41aabacked Yes | 19c | 293.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…675dbacked Yes | 50c | 200.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 75c | 182.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496a…6eeebacked Yes | 25c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 56c | 102.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 50c | 100.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…5772backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6e…50bcbacked Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1a…d7a1backed Yes | 47c | 71.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…b945backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 56c | 59.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…2442backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…c6ddbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…07c3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 38c | 33.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 54c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…5f9dbacked Yes | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event?this page
- Will Andres Gonzalez win the WSOP main event?No won
- Will Boris Angelov win the WSOP main event?No won
- Will Brian Kim win the WSOP main event?No won
- Will Jason Sagle win the WSOP main event?No won
- Will Joe Serock win the WSOP main event?No won
- Will Jonathan Tamayo win the WSOP main event?Yes won
- Will Jordan Griff win the WSOP main event?No won
- Will Malo Latinois win the WSOP main event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.