World Politics · resolved market
National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6711939e3d2909ada7aeced934b0e54a8148f4254f6c2f36e19f116f9fd20184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ba…8dbabacked Yes | 2c | 10,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 18c | 8,840$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.23 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…8c18backed No | 76c | 8,706$6,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…4cd2backed Yes | 13c | 5,377$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +229.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…3141backed No | 79c | 2,537$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb463…aa6abacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 25c | 1,584$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 19c | 1,356$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…a526backed Yes | 24c | 1,276$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…cc08backed Yes | 21c | 1,210$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 1c | 1,155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 77c | 1,091$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 994.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…f32fbacked No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…6709backed No | 66c | 700$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 23c | 644.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 38c | 491.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 41c | 485.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…490fbacked Yes | 21c | 470.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…473fbacked Yes | 17c | 464.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a3…aaacbacked No | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…793ebacked No | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…ed60backed Yes | 3c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613d…d946backed Yes | 24c | 411$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 79c | 406.19$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…2958backed Yes | 17c | 353.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 19c | 349.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +180%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…c38ebacked Yes | 3c | 319.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 22c | 295.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…9cc0backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…2467backed Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 21c | 216.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…5140backed Yes | 20c | 210.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -65%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 76c | 192.41$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d5…11dcbacked Yes | 16c | 185.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 162.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…ce10backed No | 79c | 139.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…cd37backed No | 80c | 138.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…2952backed Yes | 25c | 128.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 64c | 125.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 79c | 124.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8da…fb39backed Yes | 28c | 111.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…0d13backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…dbe0backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 73c | 58.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…a120backed No | 71c | 56.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…72aebacked No | 78c | 38.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 70c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…39c1backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…5f83backed No | 68c | 30.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked No | 61c | 25.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…b57fbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…e8cdbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…61cebacked No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…69aabacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…8426backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.