Music · resolved market
Kanye West arrested in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb99508953e97a8ecbc50edebb4ea6ff6fbba7d67b4789b25faad1117f8b94bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 778.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 705.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 12c | 700$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…95f3backed Yes | 10c | 639.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 12c | 620.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…c44fbacked Yes | 12c | 566.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8f…bcebbacked Yes | 10c | 467.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 458.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 391.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…231abacked Yes | 18c | 253.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 238.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…af2fbacked Yes | 9c | 220.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…7602backed Yes | 9c | 212.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…ee06backed Yes | 5c | 209.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6df…b84ebacked Yes | 9c | 206.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7074…160cbacked Yes | 8c | 206.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 196.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 12c | 176$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 16cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ff…f74cbacked Yes | 15c | 137.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 10c | 132.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…da26backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…2a75backed Yes | 9c | 119.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…68fdbacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…345abacked Yes | 10c | 105.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 11c | 93.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…3154backed Yes | 13c | 82.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…d533backed Yes | 14c | 72.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.