Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521be7b37404aa47279327cc245626a8aee9607d9dee9f8e5a9b6bba45fd49e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0a1…76b7backed Yes | 0c | 18,028$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 8c | 791.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 606.03$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.09 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 597.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 27c | 442.21$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 16c | 294.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 278.54$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 6c | 225$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 216.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 215.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 31c | 212.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 23c | 195.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 71c | 183.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 21c | 181.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 25c | 170.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 166.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 162.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 66c | 156.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 16c | 151.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 141.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 140.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 135.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 124.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 25c | 104.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 69c | 100.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 27c | 93.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 23c | 92.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 90.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 61c | 86.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 70c | 80.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 79.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 74.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 28c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 71.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 69.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 67.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 65.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 63.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 66c | 60.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 25c | 59.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 35c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 71c | 56.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 24c | 55.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 48.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 31c | 48.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 33c | 45.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 44.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 76c | 44.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 25c | 44.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 26c | 43.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 43.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 39.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 34.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 69c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 32c | 32.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 31c | 32.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 31.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 30.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 23.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 76c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…f5debacked Yes | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 72c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.