Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca47dd51d7019169b21be9e35bd7a3eaaab844a3203c7d83dbb8852ad0ebb9ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 13c | 452.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 425.18$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 18c | 403.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 10c | 191.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked Yes | 10c | 167$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 159.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 139.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 23c | 130.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 116.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 104.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 94.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 72c | 80.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 79.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 21c | 79.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 17c | 73.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 20c | 50.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 26c | 46.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 46.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 72c | 41.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 80c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 30c | 37.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 72c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 72c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.