Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7884328db3f7747f615c9c9f338cdcf85b621b4bdee87b390ab89db061ac505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked No | 11c | 827.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 17c | 688.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed No | 8c | 625.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 536.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 77c | 517.85$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 45c | 466.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.87 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 23c | 397.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 70c | 375.19$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 65c | 259.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 33c | 242.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 217.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 47c | 209.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 204.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 55c | 202.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 195.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 60c | 193.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 44c | 169.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 169.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 163.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 73c | 158.81$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 147.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 146.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 137.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 132.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 120.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 112$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Yes | 54c | 110.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 27c | 109.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 18c | 108.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 104.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…8bd4backed Yes | 48c | 104.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 87.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 16c | 86.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 15c | 86.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 25c | 86.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 40c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 79.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 50c | 79.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 41c | 76.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 28c | 72.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 26c | 70.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked No | 56c | 62.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 51c | 61.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 58.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 38c | 55.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked No | 56c | 53.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 32c | 52.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 52.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 60c | 50.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 50.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 60c | 50.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 40c | 49.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 61c | 49.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 29c | 48.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 56c | 48.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 46.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 52c | 45.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 34c | 45.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 56c | 44.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 70c | 42.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 56c | 42.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 37c | 38.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 68c | 38.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 36.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…257fbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 59c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 56c | 31.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 39c | 31.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 38c | 31.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 74c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.