Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63568652338626e99f75f4945f34ea5bce7ced910903c392524a4dc02b212a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 40c | 1,775$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 643.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 551.86$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 23c | 515.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 26c | 500.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 474.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 44c | 452.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 408.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 26c | 367.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 37c | 342.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 65c | 342.86$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 332.26$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 303.7$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 67c | 303$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 302.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 300.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 75c | 299.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…63babacked Yes | 13c | 299.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +624.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 295.11$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 289$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 17c | 286.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 263.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 34c | 238.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 44c | 226.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 221.2$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 211.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 200.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 197$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 190.86$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 186.55$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 71c | 179.3$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 31c | 163.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 23c | 162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 29c | 156.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 156.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 152.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 148.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 141.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 26c | 129.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 118.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 112.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 69c | 103.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 75c | 103.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 39c | 102.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 58c | 89.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 25c | 80.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 73c | 75.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 40c | 74.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 43c | 69.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 30c | 67.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 71c | 64.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 55.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 72c | 51.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 66c | 44.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…5fddbacked Yes | 37c | 42.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…ace9backed No | 71c | 42.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 66c | 41.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…a511backed Yes | 33c | 38.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 38.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…3e9dbacked Yes | 27c | 37.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 29c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 27.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 26.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 39c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 62c | 25.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 76c | 23.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.