Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fa1f67dfe0660a02edded0ed868ed2b0740a849a31caaf06e6e9661b85fdb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2cf…e417backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…d76abacked No | 0c | 13,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 58c | 3,061$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.08 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…b428backed No | 31c | 1,307$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 35c | 1,144$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.51 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…9d91backed No | 36c | 1,127$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 1,095$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 25c | 1,023$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.26 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 77c | 809.24$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked No | 35c | 776.31$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 77c | 685.81$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 65c | 676.6$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.94 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce30…3760backed No | 2c | 601.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 48c | 601.45$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.03 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 68c | 585.41$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 72c | 560$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.56 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 38c | 546.75$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 76c | 516.9$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 48c | 490.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 67c | 458.38$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 70c | 435.21$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 406.89$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 50c | 398.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 390.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed No | 47c | 386.1$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 51c | 385.07$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 67c | 383.75$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 74c | 380.64$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 43c | 373.25$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 367.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…f134backed No | 29c | 349.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…1f1ebacked Yes | 54c | 317$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 50c | 316.68$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 74c | 303$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 293.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed No | 40c | 292.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed No | 58c | 288.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 37c | 266.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…948bbacked Yes | 59c | 251.47$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 57c | 221.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 220$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 200.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 77c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked No | 51c | 196.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 56c | 191$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 68c | 189.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 182.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…67ffbacked No | 55c | 182.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 178$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 56c | 177.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 66c | 152.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 67c | 148.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 72c | 148.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 27c | 142$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 37c | 140.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 127.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 47c | 124.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 27c | 119$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 51c | 117.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 43c | 117.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 50c | 116.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…bd47backed Yes | 52c | 114.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 113.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked No | 26c | 113.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 107.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…82e1backed No | 38c | 106.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…95e6backed No | 48c | 104.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 37c | 101.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…ae00backed No | 30c | 100.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…4781backed No | 38c | 100.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 51c | 98.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked Yes | 69c | 97.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 32c | 96.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…080abacked Yes | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 36c | 94.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 34c | 92.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 62c | 92.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…a511backed Yes | 66c | 91.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 49c | 89.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 70c | 87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 59c | 84.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 47c | 84.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…95c0backed Yes | 69c | 81.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 69c | 80.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 60c | 76.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed No | 60c | 76.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 75.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 49c | 74.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe04d…e82abacked No | 32c | 73.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 70.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.