TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes23c3,259$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.225933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes4c1,400$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6861820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes9c1,030$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.457118.3%13 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c663.11$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes8c475$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa3…1e24backed Yes5c335.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7910260.8%62 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bd…57adbacked Yes8c308$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes5c305.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.952533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c289.64$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.763,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c264.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.692,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c247.92$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c221.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.57,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c220.78$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.819,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes32c216.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7718837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf4f…63f3backed Yes7c188.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes6c185.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3529520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c174.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.957,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c169.11$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.052,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes22c169$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7658732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaacb…2103backed Yes8c166.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes28c152.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8964021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f6…15a2backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30817.4%6 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes14c148.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.823,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes27c147.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9713448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c147.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8682…15a9backed No66c147.39$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.111250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes24c133.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2237835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes42c116.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes19c112.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8825362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No70c108.82$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes28c105.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes27c103.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.661,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes15c97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5514926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c92.38$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.422,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No69c91.76$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8754867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No78c91.43$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.771,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.525,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No70c87.09$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1717…1f7cbacked No63c84.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.36536.9%24 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No66c84.54$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No73c78.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2343859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes14c74.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.247432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c73.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Yes35c71.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.935824.1%14 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No65c71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.561,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No75c60.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.087468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c59.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.654,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf362…0505backed Yes35c57.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes35c57.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No71c56.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.546479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd33…21d1backed Yes28c54.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27140%0 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes37c54.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3828142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes30c51.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.35437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No67c50.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c49.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No67c47.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8954857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No61c46.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1238258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No73c46.22$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6141258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No68c43.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0834369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No65c42.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.839157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes36c37.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No56c36.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No76c35.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4617570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No59c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4235058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes37c32.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.253,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes46c29.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.720037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No54c29.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e7…5fddbacked Yes38c29.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-70.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No66c29.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8520161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No68c29.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1716968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.994766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No69c28.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.785961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No66c28.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed No68c28.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.995766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25c7…45acbacked No74c27.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.374650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No68c27.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6299571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8747569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No70c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8827769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No65c21.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.717376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No70c21.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No59c21.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7917365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed No66c20.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.855959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No71c20.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.918272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.42864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No64c19.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0735854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.